Month: January 2023

LAS VEGAS — The promise of self-driving cars spurred a Cambrian-like explosion of makers of vision sensors for autonomous vehicles. But a survival-of-the-fittest fight is now underway in a subsector of sensor makers known as lidar stock.

At least nine publicly traded companies selling vision systems for autonomous vehicles and other applications exhibited at this year’s CES, a four-day trade show that ended Sunday. They included Aeva Technologies (AEVA), AEye (LIDR), Arbe Robotics (ARBE), Cepton (CPTN), Innoviz Technologies (INVZ), Luminar (LAZR), MicroVision (MVIS), Mobileye (MBLY) and Ouster (OUST).

Most of the companies appearing at the trade show sell lidar sensors, while Arbe offers a radar solution and Mobileye targets camera-based vision.

The majority of lidar stocks were taken public by special-purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, from late 2020 to early 2022. But lidar stocks have been poor performers as they are in an emerging market with sales growth still to come. As a result, a shakeout in the market is starting to take place.

In December, Quanergy Systems, a maker of lidar sensors and related technology, filed for bankruptcy protection about 10 months after going public. Also in December, MicroVision signed a deal to acquire Ibeo Automotive Systems.

And in November, lidar stocks Ouster and Velodyne (VLDR) announced a deal to merge in an all-stock transaction.

“The two companies together will have an amazing cash balance sheet and will have very strong revenues,” Mark Frichtl, co-founder and chief technology officer of Ouster, told Investor’s Business Daily at CES. “It’s all about building a strong, stable company that can serve the customers better.”

Many Unproven Companies In Autonomous Vehicles

The lidar sector has too many companies vying for business, he said. And some of those companies are unproved.

“You see companies today that say, ‘We have no revenue now but in 2026 it’s going to be a hockey stick.’ You wouldn’t bet the company on that,” Frichtl said. “We have growing revenues today, so does Velodyne.”

Needham analyst Rajvindra Gill said he has a more positive view on the Ouster-Velodyne merger after meeting with Ouster management at CES.

“We come away more favorable on the upcoming merger, as both companies are focused on delivering lidar units to industrial markets,” he said in a note to clients. “The strategy is in the name of broadening adoption and reaching profitability faster.”

Innoviz Top Performer In Lidar Stocks

Industrial customers have been early adopters of lidar technology for their equipment, such as cranes and forklifts. Lidar sensors are seen moving to trucks and passenger vehicles for advanced driver-assistance systems, followed by autonomous vehicles. Lidar sensors are superior to radar and camera systems for their range, accuracy and precision, proponents say.

But for now, lidar stocks are laggards on the market. Most have IBD Relative Strength Ratings of 10 or below, on a scale where 1 is worst and 99 is best.

Among lidar stocks, the best performer has been Innoviz. It has an IBD Relative Strength Rating of 37. Innoviz stock is outperforming its peers because of automotive contracts with BMW (BMWYY) and Volkswagen (VWAGY).

“We won the last two (automotive) deals on the market,” Innoviz Chief Executive Omer Keilaf told IBD at CES. The company plans to announce a third deal soon with an Asian automaker, he said.

Meanwhile, he added Innoviz is competing on 11 contracts with winners seen announced by the end of the year.

“Every win brings us closer to the next one,” Keilaf said.

Autonomous Vehicles: Sensor Fusion Is Coming

Ultimately the lidar market probably will consolidate to two or three suppliers, Keilaf said. That happened in other automotive segments like air bags and brake systems, he said.

As prices for sensor technologies fall, automakers likely will use different types of sensors for more robust vision systems. That will result in “sensor fusion” that will combine lidar with radar and camera-based systems, Ouster’s Frichtl said.

original source:https://www.investors.com/news/technology/autonomous-vehicles-consolidation-ahead-for-car-sensor-market/

CarMax (KMX) stock was handed another in a string of downgrades Wednesday as analysts expect continued pain in the used car market throughout 2023. A key industry metric showed used car prices took a record fall in December.

JPMorgan analyst Rajat Gupta downgraded CarMax stock to “underweight” from “neutral” Wednesday. That analyst maintained a price target of 60, about 10% below where shares opened Wednesday. Gupta told investors that despite the recent rebound of CarMax stock, the used car market giant has quite a bit of downside risk.

CarMax stock advanced about 0.13% Wednesday during market trade. On Tuesday shares advanced nearly 0.5% to 67.39. CarMax stock has had a solid start to 2023 and is up more than 10% so far in January.

Gupta wrote Wednesday that KMX metrics included a “deteriorating margin profile and low visibility on used car market (price) normalization next year.”

Gupta added that the Richmond, Va.-based company is likely a long-term winner in the industry battle for market share. But its path to realizing that potential continues to get pushed further out.

The recent CarMax stock downgrade follows analyst skepticism in late December after the company’s latest earnings report.

On Dec. 22, KMX stock fell after the used-car kingpin reported earnings below analyst targets. CarMax reported earnings of 24 cents per share, a drop of more than 85% from year-ago levels and far below the FactSet analysts target of 64 cents. Revenue dropped nearly 24% to $6.51 billion, undercutting views for $7.16 billion.

CarMax also reported it sold 20.8% fewer vehicles vs. year-ago levels, and reported same-store sales down 22.4%.

“We believe numbers are not only far from reset for FY24 but the trajectory to eventual normalization is also far from clear today and likely to underwhelm,” Gupta wrote.

Last Thursday, Argus analyst Taylor Conrad also downgraded CarMax to “hold” from “buy.” Conrad wrote that used auto retailers will struggle in the near term as inventories decline.

CarMax Stock And Used Car Prices

Following CarMax earnings in December, Morgan Stanley (MS) analyst Adam Jonas on Dec. 28 lowered the firm’s price target to 75, down from 90, but maintained an “overweight” rating on KMX shares.

Prices for used cars at the auction/wholesale level began dropping early in 2022, according to the Manheim Used Vehicle Index. A five-year slide in new car inventories bottomed in February 2022, and then inventories reversed and climbed higher in March through September.

Historically low new car inventories, especially since Covid pandemic economic issues snarled industry supply chains, played a key role in driving used car prices to record levels.

In May, used car market disrupter Carvana (CVNA) announced it would lay off 12% of its workforce, and take on higher cost debt.

The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index in December increased 0.8% in wholesale auto prices month over month. However, prices dropped 14.9% year over year, the largest annualized price decline in the 26-year history of the index.

Along with CarMax stock, other industry group stocks, including Penske Auto Group (PAG), Lithia Motors (LAD), AutoNation (AN) and Asbury Auto Group (ABG) all made gains Wednesday.

original source:https://www.investors.com/news/used-car-prices-set-record-decline-in-december-carmax-downgraded/